AI-related business investment is rapidly becoming a cornerstone of U.S. economic growth, marking a structural shift in how expansion is financed and sustained. In the first half of 2025, investment in information-processing equipment and software — largely driven by AI infrastructure — is a small yet mighty slice of the economy, yet contributed a majority to economic growth during that period.

The S&P 500 is over halfway through Q3 earnings season, and results have been impressive. Of the 318 companies that have reported results, 83% have surpassed earnings per share (EPS) estimates, notably above the 10-year average beat rate of 75%, according to FactSet.

With the stock market in record-high territory and up about 35% off the April lows, market participants clearly haven’t been too scared lately. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of things to worry about. Just because risks haven’t affected markets much lately — subprime auto loan bankruptcies notwithstanding — doesn’t mean they won’t in the future. In that “spirit,” as Halloween approaches, we discuss what scares us about the economy and financial markets.

Corporate credit markets represent a vital component of the global financial system, providing businesses with essential capital for operations, growth, and strategic initiatives. These markets can, in general, be segmented into four distinct categories: investment-grade bonds, high-yield bonds, bank loans, and private credit.

Year three of this bull market was a strong one. After a bit of a slow start — the S&P 500 rose 21.4% during the first year of this bull compared with the average first-year gain near 40% — year two was a catch-up year with a 32.2% gain vs. a second-year average of 12.4%. Then in year three, a year that had produced an average gain of only 5.2% historically, the S&P 500 rallied 16.1% (through October 8, 2025, before Friday’s sell-off). As noted in the “After a Strong Third Year, This Bull is Ahead of Schedule” chart, the nearly 89% gain in the S&P 500 since this bull market began on October 12, 2022 (excluding dividends), is well ahead of the average and median three-year advances for all bull markets since 1950.